ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet confirmed yesterday that the first chips manufactured on High-NA EUV machines will ship within months. More than 300,000 wafers have been processed at customer sites and the EXE:5200 — at ~$400M per unit — has been delivered to SK Hynix. High-NA costs more per wafer than low-NA multi-patterning at current utilization, which is why adoption stays narrow: Intel at 18A and leading-edge memory fabs first, TSMC moving cautiously. What changed yesterday is the risk classification — the question was whether production-quality yield was proven. It is.
For the compute stack: next-generation AI accelerators and HBM4E substrates target sub-2nm nodes that require High-NA. The manufacturing runway is confirmed; the tempo is a function of how quickly the cost curve bends at volume.
Gavin Baker of Atreides Management on the two physical constraints he thinks will define the next phase of AI: power and semiconductors. Baker argues GPU useful life is at least 6 years — longer than most hyperscalers' depreciation schedules — and that H100 rental rates going vertical signals agentic AI is delivering real economic value. He also covers wafer supply dynamics, TSMC's capacity decisions, GPU disaggregation, and the emergence of new chip companies. Today's two lead stories — ASML's wafer milestone and Empower Semi's power delivery acquisition — sit exactly on the axes this episode covers.
| Nvidia | $220.61 | ▼ 0.8% | Mkt Cap: $5.39T |
Stock slipped from $222.75 to $220.61 in yesterday's session — about $16B in market cap shed heading into the Q1 FY27 print tonight after close. Consensus: $79.2B revenue, $1.78 EPS. The beat is priced in; the Q2 guidance figure (whisper: $87B for FY2027 Q2) is the only number that moves the stock. Secondary signals: Blackwell supply linearity, Vera Rubin timeline, and Jensen Huang's language on China H200 exposure following BIS's January license review revision.
| ASML | $1,459 | ▼ 2.0% | Mkt Cap: $564B |
Stock declined on the day despite Fouquet's milestone confirmation — the market is pricing adoption pace, not yield readiness. TSMC's cost-per-wafer objections and Intel's selective 18A positioning cap near-term volume. See One Thing To Know above.
Analog Devices (ADI) announced an agreement to acquire Empower Semi in an all-cash transaction for $1.5 billion, announced May 19 (Bloomberg, ADI press release). Empower makes integrated voltage regulators and silicon capacitor technology that enable power conversion closer to the processor — directly addressing the power density constraint at AI accelerator scale. ADI CEO Vincent Roche framed it plainly: "energy is now the most persistent constraint to scaling next-generation systems." Deal closes H2 2026, subject to HSR review.
PsiQuantum unveiled its Australian quantum computing site at Moreton Bay Central, Queensland — the former Petrie Paper Mill — with early site works underway and formal groundbreaking scheduled for June 2026. A Test and Validation Lab opens at Griffith University's Nathan campus the following week. Partners include the Queensland and Federal governments, City of Moreton Bay, and Brisbane Airport Corporation. The Australia build is the photonic quantum site PsiQuantum has targeted alongside its Chicago facility; interim CEO Victor Peng cited "speed, agility, and strong partnerships" as the operational model for both deployments.
Alibaba's T-Head division launched the Zhenwu M890 yesterday (CNBC, Reuters, Bloomberg): three times the compute performance of the Zhenwu 810E, 144GB GPU memory, 800GB/s interchip bandwidth, designed for agent workloads requiring long context windows and multi-model coordination. T-Head has shipped 560,000 units to 400+ customers across 20 industries.
The roadmap runs to the V900 in Q3 2027 (~3x gain) and J900 in Q3 2028 — annual generational leaps at commercial scale. Export controls did not slow this cadence; they accelerated the domestic development pressure that produced it. The question for Nvidia's China TAM is not whether alternatives exist but how quickly 400 existing customers deepen their Zhenwu deployments rather than awaiting Nvidia licenses that may not clear BIS review.
Nvidia Q1 FY27 Earnings — After market close tonight. Consensus: $79.2B revenue (+80% YoY), $1.78 EPS (+120% YoY). Data center segment expected at $72.9B. Q2 guidance is the primary variable — whisper is $87B for FY2027 Q2. Secondary signals: Blackwell supply linearity, Vera Rubin platform timeline, China H200 exposure. Follow at investor.nvidia.com.
The Compute 100 is led by Brian Schechter and Gaby Lorenzi, compute-focused investors at Primary. Primary is a pre-seed and seed-stage venture firm that backs founders building across markets including compute, industrials, healthcare and vertical AI. With $1.6B AUM and a 60+ person operating team, Primary delivers unparalleled support to teams across recruiting, finance, GTM, and brand. Primary’s compute portfolio includes Etched, The Biological Computing Company, Haiqu, and Atero (acquired by Crusoe).